Premier League Top Goalscorer Odds 2026/27

Last updated: 28/07/2026

The Golden Boot goes to whoever scores the most Premier League goals across the season, and the race runs from the opening weekend on 21 August through to the final day in May. The Golden Boot is hotly contested every year, and while the same faces tend to turn up at the top (here's looking at you, Erling Haaland, who collected his third last season), there's usually one that throws up a surprise.

Last season it was Brentford's Igor Thiago, who went and broke the record for the most goals a Brazilian has ever scored in a single Premier League campaign, and pushed Haaland deep into May before the Norwegian finally pulled clear.

The race starts in August, but it tends to be won by whoever keeps scoring through the winter rather than the streaky ones who get hot for a month and then disappear.

Below we'll go through past seasons and how many goals it's usually taken to top the lot, plus what all that means for backing a Golden Boot winner at Midnite.

Odds correct as of 27 July 2026.

Premier League top goalscorer odds 2026/27

The 19 shortest prices are shown. Midnite prices 70 players in this market. The full field is on the football outrights page.

Head to our Premierl League outrights to place your bet.

Who is favourite for the Premier League Golden Boot?

Haaland at 4/6 is about as short as this market gets, and it isn't hard to see why. Three Golden Boots already, and a City side built around getting him the ball in the areas where he does damage.

That last part matters more than it gets credit for. Bukayo Saka is 80/1 at a club that just won the league, because Arsenal's shape leaves a forward less to feed off than City's does. A side knowing its players and actually playing to their strengths is most of this market.

Isak is next at 9/1, then Igor Thiago at 10/1 off the back of the season he had, and Ollie Watkins at 14/1. Joao Pedro at 16/1, with Gyokeres and Sesko both at 20/1, round out the group with a genuine case.

What makes this year harder to read than most is how many clubs have changed manager. New man, new system, and a striker who thrived in one shape doesn't always thrive in the next.

How many goals does it take to win the Golden Boot?

Everybody wants a single number here and nobody quite gives you one, so here's the honest version: it depends entirely on the season, but there is a range it tends to fall inside.

In the 38-game era the winning total has usually landed somewhere in the twenties. Twenty-three was enough three times in recent memory, for Harry Kane in 2020-21 and then for Salah and Son sharing it the season after. Salah needed 29 in 2024-25, and Haaland finished on 27 last season, five clear of Igor Thiago on 22.

The extremes show you how wide that range can get. The lowest winning total in Premier League history is 18, shared three ways in both 1997-98 and 1998-99. The highest is Haaland's 36 in 2022-23, which broke a record of 34 set by Alan Shearer and Andy Cole back when a season ran to 42 games. [Sources: ESPN and Yahoo Sports.]

A season where two or three strikers pull clear of the field looks nothing like one settled on the final afternoon by a penalty. Which is why you'll find pages offering predicted goal tallies for each contender, and why we aren't doing that. A projection is a guess with a decimal point on it.

Do Golden Boot winners come from the best teams?

Mostly, and yet almost never from the champions themselves, which is worth sitting with because it runs against what you'd expect.

Across eleven seasons only one Golden Boot winner came from the side that went on to lift the title. Nearly all of them came from clubs scrapping for the top four, with Jamie Vardy the one genuine outlier in the whole run.

The reason isn't complicated once you see it. Teams that win leagues spread their goals around a squad full of players who can score. A club chasing fourth is far more likely to be running everything through one centre forward and hoping he stays fit.

Which means this market and the top 4 market are quietly looking at the same thing from opposite ends.

What is the Golden Boot?

It's the award for whoever scores the most Premier League goals in a season, and the important word there is Premier League. Cup goals don't count, European goals don't count and neither does pre-season, which catches people out when a striker goes on a long FA Cup run and it turns out none of it mattered.

If two or more players finish level the award gets shared, which has happened more than once in recent seasons. That matters for settlement, because a shared Golden Boot and an outright win aren't the same result.

How top goalscorer betting works

The outright market pays out on whoever ends the season with the most Premier League goals, and because the field is a lot bigger than a twenty-club title race, each-way terms turn up more often here than on most markets. Where they're offered your bet splits in two, half on the player winning outright and half on them placing, with the place half paying at a fraction of the odds. Those terms vary, so it's worth reading the ones attached rather than assuming, and our each-way explainer walks through how the place part settles.

Whatever the prices end up being, they'll tell you how strongly the market rates a player rather than giving you a percentage, because the bookies' cut sits inside every one of them, ours as much as anyone else's.

The thing that makes player markets move differently from club ones is the transfer window, which is open until 1st of September 2026. A striker moving somewhere that creates more chances shortens, one moving into a weaker attack drifts, and either can happen overnight on the back of a medical. Our transfer betting page covers what moves those markets.

Everything settles at the end of the season in May.

Frequently asked questions

Who are the favourites for the Premier League Golden Boot?

Erling Haaland is the 4/6 favourite for the 2026/27 Premier League Golden Boot, with Alexander Isak at 9/1 and Igor Thiago at 10/1. Midnite prices 70 players in this market.

Who is favourite to win the Premier League in 2026/27?

Arsenal are 6/4 to win the Premier League, ahead of Manchester City at 11/4 and Liverpool at 5/1. That's a separate market from the Golden Boot, and the full title odds are on our Premier League winner odds page. Odds correct as of 27 July 2026.

Who is the top goalscorer in the Premier League?

The 2026/27 season has not started, so there is no leading scorer yet. The first fixtures are on 21 August 2026 and the award settles in May 2027.

Does the Golden Boot count cup goals?

No. Premier League goals only. FA Cup, League Cup and European goals do not count towards the award, and neither does pre-season.

Premier League top goalscorer odds at Midnite

Football outrights across the Premier League, Championship and the European leagues are on the outrights page.

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About the author

Ben Cullen is Head of Risk at Midnite, where he leads the team that prices the markets and manages the sportsbook's exposure. He has spent 12 years in trading and risk, previously at Ladbrokes Coral, ComeOn and KingMakers. He writes here on how betting markets are actually built, priced and settled. Connect with Ben on LinkedIn.