Premier League Relegation Odds 2023-2024

• 2023-2024 Relegation Odds
• What Are Relegation Odds?
• Betting On The Bottom Three
• Look At The Data
• Relegation Betting And Form
• Relegation Bets And Factors To Consider
• Managerial Changes
• Do Newly Promoted Teams Always Go Down?
• Premier League Relegation Odds Summary

The Premier League relegation battle is one of the most exciting things about the season. It brings pulsating drama, shock victories, emphatic defeats, and final-day heartbreak for some supporters.

The unpredictable nature of the Premier League makes relegation betting a tricky subject. Though we may be able to predict the fortunes of one team, deciding on the other two Championship-bound teams can be extremely difficult.

Let’s take a look at 2023-2024 Premier League relegation odds in more detail to give you a better understanding on what to look out for in a relegation-worthy team, and why betting on promoted teams is sometimes a bad idea.

2023-2024 Relegation Odds

Luton are favourites for relegation in the 23-24 season as the Hatters embark on their first ever Premier League campaign. They're followed by Sheffield United, who were also promoted from the Championship.

Title-winners Burnley, however, are not among the three favourites for relegation, with Bournemouth the third-shortest price to go down.

Interestingly, Fulham and Brentford are both among the teams fancied to struggle in 23-24, despite having had excellent campaigns last season.

No surprises for guessing who are the least-backed team to go down - treble-winners Manchester City are close to 1000/1 to end up in the bottom three at the end of the new season.

Here's the 2023-24 Premier League relegation odds in full. Odds are correct at the time of publication.

Ready to bet? Head to our football outrights for all 2023-24 markets.

What Are Relegation Odds?

Relegation odds are largely self-explanatory as they represent bookies’ statistical favourites to go down the Championship.

The wide financial gap between those at the top of the table and those entering from the second-tier is often extreme. Therefore, newly-promoted teams often come to mind when predicting who’ll go down. However, an established Premier League side can easily look like relegation-fodder if their squad is raided in the transfer window or a highly-rated manager departs for greener grass.

As a result, Premier League relegation odds will fluctuate throughout the season, and the favourites at the start of the season may not have that status by Christmas.

Betting On The Bottom Three

Deciding on who gets relegated isn’t as simple as looking at the three newly promoted teams and making face-value assumptions on how they’ll fare in the top flight.

Just as you would when looking at Premier League title betting, you’ll need to do your homework and examine the data before you embark on relegation betting.

From looking at the teams who conceded the most chances to keeping tabs on winter transfers, here’s everything you need to know about deciding who gets relegated.

Keep in mind there’s a difference between betting on who goes down and who finishes bottom. Three teams go down every season, making the relegation battle far harder to predict than the title race.

Look At The Data

Football is awash with helpful statistical data showing a team’s expected goals for and against, the average number of shots and target, and the overall number or big chances created.

Teams with true relegation form often generate few chances to score and have porous, leaky defences. When deciding on who you think will go down, be sure to take a look at the data to ensure you’re making the right call.

Relegation Betting And Form

Form plays a big part in a team’s overall performance, and teams who looked to be safe from relegation have ended up going down due to dismal form at the end of the season.

Alternatively, teams who have started the season poorly have finished comfortably midtable, despite being favourites to suffer the drop. Leicester City, who in 2014-15 looked nailed-on for relegation, ended up finishing 14th after winning seven out of their last nine matches. Newcastle United failed to win their first 14 games in 2021-22, but ended up finishing 11th after a remarkable turnaround in form. Football is unpredictable and there are certainly no guarantees.

It’s important to make a calculated decision when it comes to betting on relegation favourites. A poor start to the season does not automatically mean that the drop is inevitable.

Relegation Bets And Factors To Consider

Even the best teams can be shells of themselves without their key players. When it comes to deciding relegation favourites, it’s well worth taking a look at team news to check for any major absences.

If a team in the bottom half relies on two or three key players, then their omissions will likely have a substantial impact on their form - particularly if their upcoming fixtures are difficult.

Winter transfers can also change a team’s fortunes, for better or worse. Splashing the cash on new players to help drag a team out of trouble doesn’t always work, but some teams (particularly Newcastle in 2021-22) have dramatically improved their squads in January to avoid relegation.

A club’s final few games can make or break their Premier League status. If a team in the bottom three faces elite sides in their closing fixtures, then relegation will be a lot more likely.

Managerial Changes

We all know that woeful form puts pressure on managers. In fact, several clubs each season sack their managers midway through the season after consecutive losses and poor performances.

Managerial changes can have mixed results. Some teams drastically improve, whilst others get even worse. Either way, you can be certain that a new manager will impact a club’s performances one way or another, so keep this in mind as you pick your relegation favourites.

Do Newly Promoted Teams Always Go Down?

It’s incredibly unlikely that all three promoted teams will finish a Premier League season outside the bottom three. In fact, it only happened three times in the first 30 Premier League seasons - 2001-02, 2011-12, and 2017-18.

We can therefore conclude that it’s incredibly likely that at least one promoted team will see an immediate return to the Championship. The financial gulf between the Premier League and the Championship is, most of the time, too great for newcomers to overcome, resulting in their relegation.

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that all three promoted teams will see immediate relegation. In fact, this has happened once in the first 30 Premier League seasons, in 1997-98. We regularly see a newly promoted team impress in the first top-flight campaign, but then fall victim to ‘second season syndrome’ and plummet back down the following season.

When picking your relegation favourites, don’t give in and simply bet on the three new arrivals. History and statistical data tell us that this hardly-ever happens, and you’d be better off looking at teams who struggled in the Premier League in the preceding season.

Premier League Relegation Odds Summary

Premier League Relegation odds describe who bookies think will go down, though odds can rapidly change depending on the factors listed above. If you’re serious about making bets on who goes down, make sure you’ve done your research and you know your chosen team inside-out.