Premier League Relegation Odds 2023-2024

Last updated: 28/07/2026

Three clubs came up from the Championship in May and the market reckons all three are going straight back, which is roughly as harsh a welcome as the Premier League offers. Hull City are 1/4 to be one of the three that go down, with Coventry City at 8/13 and Ipswich Town at 4/6, and nobody else in the division is anywhere near those prices.

Odds correct as of 27 July 2026.

Premier League relegation odds 2026/27

Head to our Premier League outrights to place your bet.

Who are the favourites to be relegated?

The three clubs who came up in May are the three shortest prices to go straight back, which says less about any of them than it does about how far the two divisions have drifted apart.

Hull at 1/4 look the lightest of the three. They've lost Joe Gelhardt and haven't spent big yet this summer, and while Jack Butland brings some Premier League quality in goal, his career never quite kicked on from where it promised to.

Coventry at 8/13 were runaway winners of the Championship and look a strong side on paper, even if most of that squad is untested at this level. They started their recruitment early, which is usually the mark of a club that knows what's coming.

Ipswich at 4/6 have the top-flight experience Coventry lack, though they've lost Muric, Chaplin and Ashley Young. They've been busy in return, bringing in Fatawu, Emersonn, Diop and Maeda, which is more movement than most promoted sides manage in a summer.

Sunderland at 11/4 is the price worth sitting with. Seventh and into Europe sounds like a club heading in one direction, until you notice they finished with a goal difference of minus six and that their home form carried them for most of the year.

Now add Thursday nights and the travel that comes with them. A squad that was already stretched is being asked to do considerably more, they've lost Mayenda and Geertruida, and new signings don't always click by Christmas.

Leeds at 9/2 had an up and down season rescued more than once by Dominic Calvert-Lewin's goals. His injury record isn't great, and any spell on the sidelines makes life difficult quickly. They landed clear in 14th but flirted with the bottom three for months to get there.

Fulham and Crystal Palace are both 11/2 and both have punched above their weight for a while now, which is a hard thing to keep doing. Palace have lost Oliver Glasner to Nottingham Forest after he took them to Conference League glory, and Fulham have lost Marco Silva along with Diop, Jimenez and Harry Wilson. [Source: Palace entered the Europa League as Conference League winners, Premier League.] New manager, thinner squad, same expectations.

Everyone below that is priced as comfortable. Arsenal are 500/1, which is the sort of number that exists mainly so the column has something in it.

Do newly promoted teams always go down?

No, but it has become a great deal more common, and that shift is the whole reason those three prices sit at the top of the market.

For most of the Premier League's history it was rare. All three promoted clubs survived together on three occasions, in 2001-02, 2011-12 and 2017-18. All three going straight back down happened exactly once in the competition's first thirty seasons, in 1997-98, when Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace all dropped.

Then it happened twice in a row. Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton all went down in 2023-24, twenty-six years after the first time, and Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton followed them straight back in 2024-25. [Source: Opta Analyst.]

Two of the three going down has been the ordinary outcome for years, happening ten times in the twenty-six seasons from 1998 to 2023. What has changed recently is the third one.

The money explains most of it. A club promoted in May spends the summer trying to close a gap that took the clubs above them a decade of television revenue to build, and one transfer window rarely does it. What saves a promoted side is usually either an unusually good recruitment window or an unusually weak group of established clubs beneath them, and neither of those is something you can see coming in July.

Premier League survival odds: betting on a team to stay up

There's a market that runs the other way round, and plenty of people go looking for it: backing a club to stay up rather than to go down. It's the same event priced from the opposite side, so a club that's short to be relegated is a long shot to survive and vice versa.

We haven't opened a standalone survival market for 2026/27.

Where you do find one, it settles as the exact mirror of relegation: the bet lands if the club finishes 17th or higher and loses if they finish in the bottom three, with no half-measures for going down on goal difference on the final afternoon.

How Premier League relegation betting works

Three bets sit close enough together that people back the wrong one. To be relegated pays out on any of the bottom three positions, with no distinction between 18th and 20th. To finish bottom only pays on 20th, which is why it's a longer price on the same club. And a relegation treble, naming all three, needs every leg to land: get two right and you've still lost, which our accumulator explainer covers in more detail.

That difference between going down and finishing bottom is the single most common mix-up in this market, so it's worth reading which one you're actually backing before you place it.

As for the prices themselves, they tell you how strongly the market rates a club's chances of dropping, but they aren't percentages. Every one of them has the bookies' cut built in, ours as much as anyone's, which is simply how bookies have always paid for themselves. Our odds explainer covers it properly.

What moves the relegation market

Transfers do most of the early work, in both directions. A promoted club spending heavily in August shortens, an established club selling its two best players drifts, and the January window does the same thing halfway through the season when the table has started to mean something.

After that it's mostly injuries and management. A bottom-half squad leaning on two or three individuals is fragile in a way a top-half squad isn't, so losing one of them for three months reprices a club quickly. Sackings move things too, though not always in the direction you'd expect, because the market sometimes reads a sacking as a fresh start and sometimes reads it as confirmation of how bad things have got.

By March the fixture list starts to matter as much as form, and a club in the bottom three facing four of the top six in May is priced very differently from one facing the sides around it. None of that is a system, though. It's what the traders are watching, and by the time you're looking at the price it already reflects their reading of it.

Frequently asked questions

Who are the favourites to be relegated from the Premier League?

Hull City are the current favourites at 1/4, followed by Coventry City at 8/13 and Ipswich Town at 4/6. All three were promoted from the Championship last season. Odds correct as of 27 July 2026.

Which team is going to be relegated from the Premier League?

The market can't tell you that, only what it thinks is likely. Hull City are the shortest price at 1/4, which is as strong a view as the market takes on any club in the division. Three clubs go down and the bottom three are decided on the final day.

Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2026/27?

The three promoted clubs, Hull City, Coventry City and Ipswich Town, head the market. History says at least one promoted club usually goes straight back down, though all three surviving has happened. Nothing is settled until May.

What are Leeds United's relegation odds?

Leeds United are 9/2 to be relegated from the Premier League in 2026/27, the second-shortest price of any club outside the promoted three. Odds correct as of 27 July 2026.

What are Everton's relegation odds?

Everton are 10/1 to be relegated from the Premier League in 2026/27, level with Bournemouth. Odds correct as of 27 July 2026.

How likely is Sunderland to be relegated?

Sunderland are 11/4, the shortest price of any established Premier League club. That's a long way clear of the promoted three but well ahead of the rest of the division.

Premier League relegation odds at Midnite

All twenty clubs are priced on the Premier League outrights page, alongside the title, top four and top six markets. Prices there move with the market; the table above is stamped with the moment it was taken.

Only stake what you can afford to lose, and remember a relegation bet ties that money up until the final day in May. If you'd rather set a ceiling once and forget about it, deposit limits and time-outs live in your account settings, and the Responsible Play page has the rest. 18+, please gamble responsibly. Midnite is licensed and regulated by the Great Britain Gambling Commission.

About the author

Ben Cullen is Head of Risk at Midnite, where he leads the team that prices the markets and manages the sportsbook's exposure. He has spent 12 years in trading and risk, previously at Ladbrokes Coral, ComeOn and KingMakers. He writes here on how betting markets are actually built, priced and settled. Connect with Ben on LinkedIn.