Premier League Golden Boot: Top Scorer Odds And Betting

The Premier League golden boot is a sought-after prize with the league’s attacking players with legendary winners like Alan Shearer, Thierry Henry, Wayne Rooney, and Harry Kane.

Golden Boot odds fluctuate throughout the season due to players’ form, injury record, and the number of games they feature in. This, along with the general performance of their club, has a massive impact on how many goals a player can score.

If you wish to bet on who walks away with the Top Scorer prize this season, here’s some hints and tips for betting on the Premier League Golden Boot winner.

What Is The Golden Boot?

The Golden Boot is a trophy given to the Premier League player who finishes the season with the highest number of goals.

The award only counts Premier League games, meaning that goals scored in the FA or EFL Cups do not count - and neither do pre-season games.

A similar trophy, the Playmaker of the Season, has been given to the player with the highest amount of assists since the 2017/18 season.

How To Bet On The Premier League Golden Boot

The Golden Boot race is usually an exciting one as players with similar goal tallies will hope to claim the award during the climax of the season.

There are several strategies to Premier League top scorer betting, and we’ll explore these below:

Research Fixtures At The End Of The Season

It’s all well and good picking your Golden Boot winner at the start of the season, but players can level off midway through the season and fall way behind the race for top scorer.

If you’re picking a Chelsea player, for example, then their relatively easy fixtures at the start of the season can make their strikers look a lot more prolific than they actually are.

If The Blues run into a tough run of games from March onwards, then the chances of one of their strikers scoring several goals goes down considerably.

Look At The Entire Team

A striker depends on service from midfield and wide areas, and their goal output is only as good as the service allows.

Elite strikers will still find ways to score goals, but they’ll still be hampered by out-of-form midfielders or a missing (or sold) midfield talisman. Competitions like the Africa Cup of Nations can cause mass absences throughout a squad, therefore reducing the amount of Premier League games these players will feature in.

Football is, of course, a team sport and every player needs to contribute. If your chosen striker is surrounded by a substandard team, then you may wish to rethink your selection, unless they’re in sensational form.

Check Team News, Injuries, And Transfers

There are three factors that could radically upset the harmony of a squad and impact a Golden Boot-chasing striker’s dream - form, injuries, and transfers.

A rich vein of form after the January transfer window can result in a previously-discounted forward making a sudden bid for the top scorer prize, whilst other strikers could be impacted by the selling-off of their teammates.

Injuries to key creative players can also hurt a team’s entire attacking output, so it’s well worth keeping up to date with these factors as much as you can.

Watch Out For Fixture Build-Up

The high-octane nature of the Premier League, as well as the demanding Champions League and Europa League games, can take their toll on players.

The thick-and-fast nature of these fixtures can result in managers resting key players for certain games, harming their chances of winning the Golden Boot.

Alternatively, a Golden Boot-chasing striker from a mid table club can benefit from the lack of European football as they can focus on the Premier League , and improve their bid for top-scorer.

Frequency, as well as difficulty, of the penultimate fixtures are key facets of who tops the scoring charts.

Do The Champions Always Produce The Golden Boot Winner?

You may be tempted to bet on the striker who plays for the team who won the Premier League the previous season, and this line of thinking is very much understandable.

However, if we take a look at Premier League Golden Boot winners across 10 seasons (2011-12 to 2021-22) we’ll see this isn’t always a good idea:

• 2011-12 Golden Boot winner - Robin Van Persie (Arsenal)
• 2012-13 Golden Boot winner - Robin Van Persie (Manchester United)
• 2013-14 Golden Boot winner - Luis Suarez (Liverpool)
• 2014-15 Golden Boot winner - Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
• 2015-16 Golden Boot winner - Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)
• 2016-17 Golden Boot winner - Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)
• 2017-18 Golden Boot winner - Mohammed Salah (Liverpool)
• 2018-19 Golden Boot winner - Mohammed Salah, Sadio Mane, Pierre Emerick Aubameyang (Liverpool, Arsenal, shared)
• 2019-20 Golden Boot winner - Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)
• 2020-21 Golden Boot winner - Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)
• 2021-22 Golden Boot winner - Mohammed Salah, Heung-Min Son (Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, shared)

Of these top scorers, only once did the Golden Boot winner come from the league champions - Robin Van Persie in 2012/13 with Manchester United.

This means that picking your Golden Boot winner solely because they play for the reigning champions is not a bet supported by data. However, the Premier League is infamously hard to predict and, as we learned when Kevin Phillips won the award, the top scorer can come from anywhere.

Golden Boot winners may rarely play for reigning champions, but they almost always play for teams within top-four contention. Of the ten seasons featured above, only Jamie Vardy won the award playing for a team who finished outside the Champions League places, though Leciester were in the top-four for the vast majority of that season.

Golden Boot Betting Summary

If you wish to bet on who walks away with the Premier League Golden Boot, then it’s imperative that you’re up to date with your player’s form, fixtures, and injury record. Keep in mind that although league champions rarely produce top-scoring forwards, Golden Boot winners almost always come from teams playing in the top-four.