The Sack Race: Next Manager Betting

• What Is Next Manager Betting?
• Next Manager Betting Tips
• Next Manager Betting Odds Summary

The results-based nature of football leads to a perpetual merry-go-round of managers at clubs of every level.

You may be tempted to bet on the next manager market if you’re confident on which teams will make changes this season. If you do, then here’s a guide with all the information you could possibly know.

Before we get stuck in with our tips, though, we’ll briefly go over what the next manager market entails.

What Is Next Manager Betting?

Next manager betting is largely self-explanatory as it involves predicting who the next manager of a club will be, as well as the sack race - who the next serving manager to be sacked will be. Typically, the next manager bets are a type of Specials Market offered by some sportsbooks and work similarly to transfer betting predictions.

Next manager betting odds can encompass two areas:

• Which serving manager will be next to face the sack
• Who their replacement will be

Next manager betting sounds simple on paper, but it requires, as all betting markets do, adequate research and planning prior to making a decision.

Next Manager Betting Tips

Bookies will often provide sack race odds on each of the major divisions, including next Premier League manager to be sacked or next Championship manager to leave.

Making your next manager predictions should revolve around removing as much risk as possible. From looking at the clubs whose form is taking a downturn to researching which managers are unattached, there are a lot of things you can do to aid your next manager betting predictions.

Look At Who’s Out Of Form

It’s often said that a Premier League manager is only five or six bad results away from the sack at any time. Though this may be somewhat of a generalised overstatement, it remains true that professional football is cutthroat and, at times, incredibly callous.

Sir Bobby Robson was sacked at Newcastle United after previously guiding them to 5th in 2003-04, and Roberto Di Matteo was sacked a few months after he delivered an unlikely Champions League to Chelsea.

There are some of the more extreme historical examples of sackings, but there have been plenty of others that were less surprising - the most notable being Frank De Boer’s exit from Crystal Palace after the Dutchman failed to win a single of his four league games in charge.

Looking at which teams are out of balance will help you understand the managers who are in the most precarious position, and this will aid you in your predictions.

Another important factor is timing. Clubs will be a lot more willing to sack a manager at the start and middle of the season than at the tail-end, particularly if the club is in a relegation dogfight.

The majority of managerial changes in the 21/22 Premier League season occurred between October and January. Alterations are also made between seasons, with managers joining before pre-season for a chance to work with their players in advance.

Look At Who’s On The Market

The majority of football’s elite managers are employed in jobs, and there are only a few top managers available on the market at any time.

It may be tempting to bet on an A-list manager to take over at an established club, but keep in mind that buyout fees for managers are often extremely high.

Aim to be as realistic and pragmatic as possible when deciding who the next manager of a club will be.

It’s also important to judge the status of the manager and the club you think they’ll go to. If the club tends to go for bigger, more proven managers, then your prediction that they’ll go for a young up-and-comer may not be accurate. Alternatively, a seasoned, sought-after coach is less likely to go to a struggling mid-table club.

An exception to this would be the introduction of Carlo Ancelotti (then a three-time Champions League winner) to midtable Everton in late 2019. Another example would be Manchester United’s decision to replace the world-famous Jose Mourinho with unproven club-legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in December 2018.

Check The Next Manager Betting Odds

Most major bookmakers have a ‘next manager’ page, along with a ‘next manager to leave’’ page, where the odds are detailed.

In November 2022, a major bookmaker’s next EPL manager to be sacked odds looked like this:

• Frank Lampard (Everton) - 4/9
• David Moyes (West Ham United) - 3/1
• Graham Potter (Chelsea) - 8/1
• Jesse Marsch (Leeds United) - 12/1

Keep in mind that the odds in this market can radically change if the club picks up consecutive victories or wins their next match convincingly - and historical odds will show the favourite is not always the next one to go.

Nevertheless, favourites for the sack are favourites for a reason. Whilst the bookmakers are not always right, you can learn a lot from reading their odds.

Don’t Listen To Sensationalism

Football is a 24/7 news phenomenon and the sport isn’t a stranger to the occasional sensationalist story.

Social media may call for a manager to be sacked following a poor performance, however you should make sure that you separate this from genuine media discussion. Unfounded speculation and unverified rumours are rampant in the footballing world, particularly when it comes to managers, and countless managers who have been rumoured for the sack have ended up staying in their positions.

You should also make sure that your next manager bet isn’t driven by emotion. If the club you support is going through a bad time, it’s understandable to yearn for a change in the dugout, and you may even be tempted to bet on it if you feel really strongly.

Clubs like Chelsea and Watford are notorious for their managerial changes, but these clubs are the exception, not the rule. If your club is going through a bad patch, then that doesn’t necessarily mean that the manager is on his or her way out.

Next Manager Betting Odds Summary

Managerial changes are commonplace in football, and next manager betting involves two processes - predicting who the next manager to be sacked will be, and which manager will be their replacement.

Clubs can make sackings that are shocking and they can also sack managers seemingly at random. Keep in mind, though, that not all departing managers are sacked, as some leave for other reasons.

It’s important to make rational predictions and not to listen to unfounded speculation when you’re making your next manager bets. If your predictions are well-researched, then you’ll be well on your way to success in this betting market.