Ballon d'Or Predictions And Odds 2023
A guide to making Ballon d'Or predictions, including latest odds on Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, betting odds and tips
By James McMath
The Ballon d’Or among the most famous prizes in football, and betting on it can be extremely rewarding.
If you have a Ballon d’Or winner in mind and wish to make a bet, then here’s a guide to making solid Ballon d’Or predictions, with all tips you need to know.
Before we get on with our tips, though, let’s briefly talk about the award, what it is, and why it’s so sought-after.
What is The Ballon d’Or?
The Ballon d’Or is an award given by France Football magazine to the best performing player at a European club. The inaugural award was given to Stanley Matthews in 1956, and has been awarded every year since then, apart from 2020.
At first, the honour was given strictly to European players, but the rules were later widened to include players from all over the world, as long as they play in Europe.
Considered the most prestigious individual award in the game, the Ballon d’Or has been won by some of the greatest players of all-time.
Let's take a look at the latest Ballon d'Or odds and betting tips.
Multiple Winners
Ten players have won the Ballon d’Or more than once (as of 2022), with Lionel Messi winning a record 7 awards.
Other serial winners of this prize include:
- Cristiano Ronaldo (5 awards)
- Michel Platini (3 awards)
- Johan Cruyff (3 awards)
- Marco van Basten (3 awards)
- Franz Beckenbauer (2 awards)
- Ronaldo (2 awards)
- Kevin Keegan (2 awards)
- Karl-Heinz Rummenigge (2 awards)
Messi and Ronaldo dominated the award throughout the late-2000s and entire 2010s, before Luka Modric and Karim Benzema won it and broke their dominance.
The last English player to win the prize was Michael Owen way back in 2001, whereas the last German awarded the Ballon d’Or was Matthias Sammer in 1996.
How To Bet On The Ballon d’Or
Betting on the Ballon d’Or may sound daunting due to the huge number of elite players throughout the continent, but remember that a 30-man shortlist is announced prior to the ceremony.
Look at Who’s In Form
The simplest way to make your Ballon d’Or predictions is to look at who’s in rip-roaring form. Keep in mind that a few weeks of good form probably won’t be enough to land a player into contention, nor will a one-off game.
What you’re looking for is a player who has been outstanding throughout the whole season. Had the prize been awarded in 2020, Robert Lewandowski surely would have been awarded it due to his 48-goal season and Champions League win.
The Polish striker was in stunning form across the entire campaign - attributes you should look for when making your predictions. Consider International Form
As great as Luka Modric and Fabio Cannavaro are, it’s obvious that their superb international campaigns played a huge part in their respective Ballon d’Or wins.
Modric was voted the best player at the 2018 World Cup, whereas Cannavaro won the tournament as Italy’s captain. Both players won major club trophies that year, however their showing on the international stage helped ramp up their profile.
A great international campaign can dramatically increase a player’s chances of winning the Ballon d’Or, but keep in mind that this isn’t always the case. Ronadlo and Messi have, as of 2022, never won the World Cup, yet the pair share the most Ballon d’Or awards in history.
Do Strikers Always Win?
It may be unfair, but the Ballon d’Or is usually awarded to players with more attacking roles on the pitch.
Fabio Cannavaro was the last defender to win the award, and many felt that Virgil Van Dijk was overlooked for the 2019 honour due to his unglamorous role.
If you’re serious about your Ballon d’Or predictions, then it’s worth focusing on attacking players, as they tend to get most of the spotlight.
Look At Who’s Won Major Trophies
It’s incredibly rare for a Ballon d’Or winner to finish the season without any major trophies. In fact, if we look at the last 10 Ballon d’Or winners, we can see that the lion’s share of the winners were ones who scooped up major trophies that year.
Cristiano Ronaldo won the 2013 Ballon d’Or despite not winning La Liga or the UEFA Champions League, but the Portuguese will always be somewhat of an outlier.
Jorginho was pipped to win the 2021 award due to his European Championship and Champions League wins, and it’s safe to say that the Italian would have been nowhere near the award had it not been for those. Football is a results-based business, and a trophy haul will always dictate a player’s chances of winning the coveted Ballon d’Or.
Check The Odds
Another foolproof way of making sensible Ballon d’Or predictions is to look at bookmakers’ odds.
Whilst they aren’t always right, a glance at the odds can educate you on who the heavy favourites are. An important thing to keep in mind is that Ballon d’Or odds can fluctuate throughout the season, so make sure you check the odds shortly before the award is given.
Bookies tipped Lionel Messi to win the award in 2019, but his 2021 win was a shock to many, with numerous social media users discussing that, despite his Copa America win, the Argentine should’ve come second to Jorginho or Lewandowski.
The Ballon d’Or odds heat up towards the end of the season, so be sure to check them at this time.
The 2022 Ballon d’Or odds looked like this:
- Karim Benzema (1/33)
- Erling Haaland (12/1)
- Kylian Mbappe (16/1)
Benzema was the clear favourite prior to the ceremony, and the Frenchman ended up winning it, to the surprise of almost nobody.
The bookmakers aren’t always correct, but they usually have a good idea of who’s going to take the prestigious prize home.
2023 Ballon d'Or Odds
We're a long way out from the ceremony but the 2023 Ballon d'Or odds are already pointing to one clear favourite. Odds are correct at the time of publishing
- Lionel Messi | 87/100
- Kylian Mbappe | 23/10
- Erling Haaland | 21/5
- Neymar Jr | 37/5
- Kevin De Bruyne | 81/10
- Karim Benzema | 41/5
- Robert Lewandowski | 12/1
- Harry Kane | 21/1
More 2023 Ballon d'Or odds at Midnite
2023 Ballon d'Or Date
The daet for the 2023 Ballon d'Or ceremony has not yet been confirmed but the 2022 edition was held on 17 October, so we can expect it to be staged a similar time of year.
Ballon d'Or Predictions Summary
The Ballon d’Or is one of the most coveted individual sporting awards in the world, and betting on it can be hugely exciting.
To make strong predictions, consider who’s in stellar form this season for both club and country, as well as any serial winners of major trophies. Strikers tend to win the bulk of the Ballon d’Or awards, but this doesn’t mean that midfielders never win.
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