Over-Under Basketball Betting Tips
A guide to making advanced basketball predictions, including over-under betting tips and other markets in NBA, college basketball and EuroLeague
By James McMath
NBA basketball is one of the most popular sports leagues in North America. There are several reasons why, but it's primarily due to the sheer number of games per season.
Each NBA season hosts 82 games, giving bettors ample opportunities to place wagers and the chance to win big.
This free basketball betting tips article looks at the over-under betting market and highlights factors that bettors should keep in mind.
Over-Under Betting
Although money-line and point-spread betting is the most favoured form of sports betting, over-under is still a very popular betting market.
Unlike other betting markets, over-under betting does not pick a favoured team to win. It is irrelevant who wins the game; however, performance is still a crucial consideration when making score predictions. In football, a similar market exists, with over-under goals tips being popular with fans.
The way it works is relatively simple. Over-under is a set of odds where bettors place wagers on whether the combined score of a game will total more or less than what the online bookmaker has called.
If bettors think there will be more points scored than the bookmaker's prediction, they should bet on over. If they think that there will be fewer points scored than what has been predicted by the bookmaker, they should bet on under.
If a bettor is interested in over-under betting but lacks the experience, it's wise to watch the season and practise with free bets until the NBA playoffs arrive.
NBA Basketball Over-Under Betting
Placing over-under NBA bets isn't complex. Here's an example:
The New York Knicks are playing the Boston Celtics and the bookmaker has set the over-under score to 210.5 points.
The bettor decides to place a wager on the outcome being over.
The Knicks win with 120 points and the Celtics lose, but still scored 115 points.
The combined score of the two teams was 235, meaning that the bettor won: the score was over the 210.5 set by the bookmaker.
Bookmakers always set their over-under score prediction with a 0.5 decimal to avoid scores being identical, as there is no half-point in basketball.
NBA Basketball Betting Markets
There are several variations of over-under basketball bets that can be made on the NBA.
Individual player
Over-under basketball betting can also be done on how many points individual players score in an NBA game. This is known as a prop bet. The bookmaker sets the predicted number of points for a specific player instead of the entire team. This can be done per game, per NBA finals or per regular season.
For example: Stephen Curry from the Golden State Warriors averages 24.6 points per game. However, he's been having a good season, so the bookmaker sets the predicted total to 27.5.
The bettor believes that Curry will continue on his trend of scoring a bit above his average. These are attractive odds and the bettor bets over.
Unfortunately, Curry is injured during the game and taken off the court, resulting in a score significantly lower than predicted. The bettor loses the bet.
Partial bet
A partial over-under bet is when the bet covers a much smaller time frame than a whole game. It can be narrowed down to a half-game or a quarter-game.
This requires a much deeper understanding of the team/players and is appealing to expert NBA tipsters. Extensive knowledge of how players/teams perform in different stages of the game, under pressure, as offensive and defensive side etc. is key to making a partial bet over-under predictions.
Season bet
Instead of betting on a single game, over-under bets can be made on the entire season. Before any league games, online sportsbooks make basketball predictions for each NBA team on the total points they'll score. Bets must be placed before any games take place.
There is an added element of risk in this betting market. Bets must be wagered before any play has commenced - but right after play drafting NBA picks have been done. There is no reliable way to know how a team will perform as a whole after player trading has taken place.
Parlay bet
This type of betting is best for experienced basketball tipsters who are confident in predicting a game due to the multi-leg nature of parlay bets.
In parlay over-under bets, the bettor must make a call on a minimum of four games. If they are wrong about one of those games, they lose the entire parlay bet. Players usually lose all their wager money, but some online bookmakers give free bet credits for the legs that did result in a win.
Over-under with money line bet
An over-under bet can be made alongside a money-line bet. This means that in addition to calling the score of the game and whether it will be over or under the bookmaker's total, a bettor must bet on which team they think will win.
NBA Betting Strategies
When making NBA predictions and placing over-under bets, there are a few aspects to consider. Below are NBA betting tips to guide a bettor and help them play the best basketball odds.
Player & team matchups: Some matches are evenly stacked with high-point scorers or with low-point scorers. These can be easier to predict compared to a mixed match.
Season schedule: The season is so busy that there are nights when teams play back-to-back. This can fatigue players and reduce the game points.
Player injury: If a top scorer of a team is injured and out for a game, this will affect the number of points per game/season.
Line shopping: Once a player has made their over-under predictions for an upcoming game, they can shop around on other betting sites that have the best odds relative to their predictions.
FAQs
What odds format is used for NBA?
It very much depends on the user. In the US, American odds are used for NBA betting. Negative numbers indicate the teams favoured to win and positive numbers indicate underdogs. However, in the UK, fractional odds are more commonly used. And in Europe, decimal odds tend to be most popular with fans.
Is the NBA the only basketball league to bet on?
No, there are other plenty of other basketball leagues to bet on, with EuroLeague predictions and college basketball predictions being among the most popular with fans.
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