UFC Predictions And MMA Betting Tips
A guide for fans looking to make UFC predictions and how to find accurate MMA betting tips
By James McMath
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has exploded in popularity over the last decade and the brand has attracted fans from all over the world.
If you’re keen to start betting on the Ultimate Fighting Championship, then here’s a guide with all you need to know.
Though the sport that UFC showcases (MMA) is a world away from the sports of football, rugby, or cricket, the betting principles you’ll learn in this guide have a lot of transferable information that you can apply in any other sport. Let’s begin.
How To Bet On The UFC
Betting on the UFC is not rocket science, as all it takes to get started is a competent understanding of the fighters, betting markets, and the overall statistical trends.
Our UFC betting tips are:
Know The Fighters
This may sound incredibly obvious, but an essential step of the UFC betting process is to know the established and emerging fighters. A lot of more casual bettors know the big names, like Conor McGregor, Frank Mir, or Brock Lesnar, yet they lack adequate knowledge of the lesser-known divisions.
Sticking to one division is fine, but if you want to become a seasoned UFC bettor, then take a more holistic look at the roster and explore the 12 different divisions on show.
UFC divisions include:
- Heavyweight (arguably the most famous)
- Light Heavyweight
- Middleweight
- Welterweight
- Lightweight
- Men’s Featherweight
- Men’s Bantamweight
- Men’s Flyweight
There are also four women’s divisions:
- Women’s Featherweight
- Women’s Bantamweight
- Women’s Flyweight
- Women’s Starweight
You don’t have to bet on every division by any means, but it never hurts to know more about the UFC product and the fighters they showcase.
Back The Younger Fighter And Better Striker
Age plays a vital role in UFC fights, and this is evidenced by the fact that 62% of UFC fights have been won by the younger fighter since January 2020.
There is, of course, nuance to this statistic, as it doesn’t mean a fighter who is only a few months younger than their opponent is the favourite by default. Rather, it means that a fighter who was at least five years younger than their opponent was victorious.
Between fights taking place between athletes 10 years apart in age, the younger fighter won 64% of the time.
UFC heavyweights are often pretty even in terms of betting odds, making their fights hard to predict. A good way of measuring who has a marginal advantage, though, is to bet on who the better striker is out of the two.
Over 60% of heavyweight UFC bouts have ended up in a knockout victory, compared to 37% of middleweight bouts and 25% of lightweight fights.
Striking power could make the difference in a close UFC contest, so make sure you’re as knowledgeable as possible on the fighters before you bet on them.
Watch Out For Replacements
It’s not uncommon to see fighters pull out of fights at the 11th hour, their opponents instead facing a replacement.
This, however, often ends up in a loss for the replacement, as 64% of stand-ins have lost their bouts in the 30 years of UFC’s history.
The late replacement is usually the underdog, so make sure you bet on them at your own discretion.
Keep Up-To-Date With MMA News
UFC is the most prominent promotions company in MMA. You can read our guide to making MMA predictions at Midnite.
The UFC is a global monster with plenty of dedicated journalists, writers, and fan-created YouTue channels, so staying in the loop is easy.
It’s essential that you know the recent form of your chosen fighters, as well as their respective head-to-head records against each other, as well as any injury news.
Fighters often compete with minor injuries, and fine margins play a huge part in dictating the outcome of a bout, so make sure you’re as clued-up on pre-fight news as much as possible.
There are several helpful UFC-based websites such as ufcstats.com, sherdog.com, Reddit’s UFC community, and the official UFC website.
Decide On Your Betting Market
There are a host of UFC betting markets out there, and your bets don’t have to be limited to who wins a fight.
If you want to become an experienced UFC bettor, then here are some of the other betting markets you need to know about.
Method Of Victory
A great way to spruce up the usual fight-winner bet is to predict the method of victory. In MMA, fights are won via knockout (KO), total knockout, (TKO), submission, decision, or technical decision.
Odds can be quite higher or lower depending on the fighters’ respective strengths.
Round Betting
Round betting is deciding which round you’ll think the fight will conclude in. If you get this right, then you could be on the receiving end of some generous odds.
Total Rounds
You’ll often find this bet displayed as an over/under with a predetermined number of rounds. For example, you can bet that a round will go over or under 2.5 rounds.
Total rounds is a market for the seasoned UFC viewer. Though it can deliver on high odds, it is best left avoided if you’re brand new to the sport.
UFC Outrights
It’s completely possible to make a forecast on who’ll be holding a title bet at a predetermined date. Such bets are called outrights or ‘futures’ and can often carry high odds due to the specificity of your prediction.
UFC Futures bets aren’t for the faint of heart, however, as they require an imitate knowledge of the whole roster, as well as educated forecasts on where the fighters may end up within a few years.
UFC Predictions Summary
There are many ways to bet on the UFC, yet the betting markets you pick will depend on your experience, skill, and overall knowledge level.
If you’re betting on an even match-up between two fighters of a similar age, then we recommend betting on the superior striker. If two fighters who are substantially different in age face-off, then it’s worth sticking a bet on the younger one.
The UFC’s popularity continues to grow each year, making betting on it more and more approachable due to the massive coverage this exciting MMA brand generates.
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